The sight of Bloomberg affixing his seal of approval on a clutch of picks across the land, eclectic in their party labels but consistent in their moderation, has stirred questions about his motives—and national aspirations. Deputy Mayor Howard Wolfson says that his boss is doing little more than wielding his influence to blunt the purity-crazed polarization that Bloomberg regards as a national curse.
That he is trying to raise his national visibility and take the temperature of the body politic. That he is once again considering an independent presidential bid.
In no small part, Bloomberg reached that conclusion because he regarded Obama and McCain more or less as centrists, too close to his own worldview and governing philosophy to leave enough running room for him. Another constant is Kevin Sheekey, the mischievous former deputy mayor now employed at Bloomberg L. And still another is that Bloomberg has no intention of running unless he perceives a plausible road to victory. Thus are Sheekey and others eagerly monitoring a new outfit called Americans Elect, which plans to launch early next year.
The more pivotal factor, no doubt, will be the behavior of the White House and both parties in the next eighteen months. But among the names occasionally mooted—Donald Trump? His economic competence and financial acumen would appeal to moderate Republicans and conservative Democrats, and his liberal stances on the Park51 mosque, gay marriage, and other social issues might make him appealing to some progressives disappointed in Obama.
Bloomberg is well aware, because his advisers have flatly told him, that the White House is fretting about his entering the race and that this fear is what has motivated their sycophancy toward him lately. Assuming that Palin were the nominee, just how much further would Obama have to slip for that to happen? But what if it was at, say, 42 percent—four points below its current level, according to the Gallup tracking poll? What would then transpire?
To get Rumsfeldian for a sec, the combination of known unknowns and unknown unknowns is enough to make your head spin. One scenario, most likely if the economy suffers a double-dip recession, is that the nation would be so desperate for capable economic management that Bloomberg would be able to overcome his vulnerabilities—his short-Jewish-unmarried-plutocratness—and find himself deposited in the Oval Office. But there is a third scenario, one that involves a more granular kind of analysis-cum-speculation.
By the accounts of strategists in both parties, Bloomberg—especially with the help of his billions—would stand a reasonable chance of carrying New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida, and California. Combine that with a strong-enough showing in a few other places in the industrial Northeast to deny Obama those states, and with Palin holding the fire-engine-red states of the South, and the president might find himself short of the electoral votes necessary to win.
Assuming you still remember the basics from American Government , you know what would happen next: The election would be thrown to the House of Representatives—which, after November 2, is likely to be controlled by the Republicans. The result: Hello, President Palin! Certainly, it qualifies as far-fetched.
But here she is, a phenomenon nearly—nearly—unprecedented in modern politics, a figure so electrifying to the most hopped-up segment of her party that at times she seems unstoppable.
And look what happened to him. Already a subscriber? Statistics or facts must include a citation or a link to the citation. Where is the similar analysis about Barak Obama? Palin is running for VP, Obama is running for President, but it seems that she wins even that comparison based on experience.
There is nothing wrong with having a headline that asks this question. Yet there seems to be no problem with discussions about how Palin is not qualified to be VP. Is he charismatic? Does his potential Presidency promise more gridlock in DC, absolutely. Sen Biden collected approximately votes in his bid for the Democratic nominee, essentially the same size constituency that Gov. Palin had as mayor…she is a proven Governor and leader…can I say the same about Sen.
I think the jury is still out on that, at least in my mind…. I think Palin would do fine as the VP. Thank you. Just Wonderful. These are their stated policies; not some reckless, phony charges by their opposition. You truly want four more years of cowboy diplomacy and further attacks on working people? What they believe really is more important than their personality. We just had 8 years of personality, poor judgement and incompetant decisions.
You want more of that? Compared to who?? The article is about Palin being ready for VP. Not Obama vs. Whether someone is qualified is an essential question to ask of any candidate for any office, Sarah Palin and Barack Obama, included. Scrutiny of Gov. Palin has increased dramatically because of her recent interviews in which she showed a lack of knowledge about issues that she will be faced with very soon, if elected. Obama has less experience than most presidential candidates but was vetted by millions of voters in the primaries and has been on the national scene since giving the well-received keynote speech at the Democratic National Convention in His electoral success demonstrates that many voters are satisfied that he has what it takes.
In contrast, Gov. Palin was selected by one person, Sen. At this moment, according to polls, voters do not ratify this choice. The vice presidential debate is tonight, so this is an excellent time to ask this question. Zelnick makes a great point about Condoleeza Rice. As it is, however, Sarah Palin is on the ticket, and in none of her appearances outside of her scripted attack sermon-to-the-choir at the RNC has she erased serious doubts about her ability to lead the nation should, God forbid, she be called upon to do so.
Less than a year into the job, Ruedrich got crosswise with Palin for conducting party business from his office and, it was later revealed, giving information to a company that the commission oversaw. So Palin laid out her concerns in a letter to the governor and the story leaked to the media.
In the ensuing uproar, Palin became a hero and Murkowski was left no choice but to fire Ruedrich from the commission. Palin got strong support from an unlikely quarter: Democrats. It looked like real moral courage. Murkowski and Ruedrich still ran the party. Breaking with them made her no longer viable as an ordinary Republican or a recipient of oil-company largesse. To continue her rise, she needed to find another path. Palin alone imagined that she could. In this and other ways, she displayed all the traits that would become famous: the intense personalization of politics, the hyper-aggressive score-settling—and the dramatic public gesture, which came next.
Palin was clearly the victor Ruedrich paid the largest civil fine in state history , but she quit the commission anyway. In Going Rogue , she says only that as a commissioner, she was subject to a gag order that Murkowski refused to lift.
What it did was thrust her back into the spotlight and reinforce her public image. It also gave her a rationale to challenge Murkowski. Murkowski made up his mind to strike a deal with the major oil producers to finally build a gas pipeline from the North Slope.
He cut out the legislature and insisted on negotiating through his own team of experts, out of public sight. It was a breathtaking giveaway that ceded control of the pipeline to the oil companies and retained only a small stake for Alaskans; established a year regime of low taxes impossible to revoke; indemnified companies against any damages from accidents; and exempted everything from open-records laws. In exchange, the state got an increase in the oil-production tax. In the end, the legislature rejected the gas-line deal.
But, in a twist, it agreed to the oil tax—which had been intended as an inducement to pass the rest of the package. Palin came out hard on the other side of the philosophical divide from Murkowski—and made it personal. She announced she would challenge him for governor. And she declared her intention to hire Tom Irwin to negotiate the deal. She knows how to pick her way down the political route that she feels will be the most beneficial to what she wants to do. Just after he signed the new Petroleum Profits Tax, the FBI raided the offices of six legislators, in what became the biggest corruption scandal in state history.
During the legislative session, the FBI had hidden a video camera at the Baranof Hotel, in Juneau, in a suite that belonged to Bill Allen, a major power broker and the chief executive of Veco Corporation, an oil-services firm.
Several were later sent to prison. In the Republican primary, Palin crushed Murkowski, delivering one of the worst defeats ever suffered by an incumbent governor anywhere. She went on to have little trouble dispatching Knowles, an oil-friendly Democrat. Maybe some others. But the five-letter word that people in Alaska associated with her name was clean.
P alin has gained a reputation for being erratic, undisciplined, not up to the job. She began by confronting the two biggest issues in Alaska—the gas pipeline and the oil tax—and drove the policy process on both of them. After taking office in December , she kept her word and hired Tom Irwin, and other members of the Magnificent Seven. They devised a plan to attract someone other than the oil companies to build the pipeline, and they bid out the license to move ahead with it—to the deep displeasure of the oil producers, who vowed not to participate.
Palin came under serious political pressure. That spring, the Alaska Gasline Inducement Act sailed to passage, helped along by criminal indictments in the Veco scandal, which were handed down just as the bill came up.
Still, Palin was the deciding factor. A new pipeline plan had seemed unlikely when she took over, but she kept the legislature focused on the task. She kept herself focused, too: though priding herself on her well-advertised social conservatism, she was prepared to set it aside when necessary. Rather than pick big fights about social issues, she declined to take up two abortion-restriction measures that she favored, and vetoed a bill banning benefits for same-sex partners of state workers.
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